Will History Rhyme?

2024-10-01T18:46:24+00:00October 1st, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this week’s Market Update, I share comments made by economists Dr. John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham as well as quotes from Benjamin Graham and David Dodd published after the 1929-1932 stock market crash. The first graph below from Dr. Hussman’s most recent Market Comment [...]

Is the Fed Panicking?

2024-09-24T16:45:05+00:00September 24th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week the Federal Reserve surprised economists with a 0.50% decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, rather than the expected 0.25% decrease. There are two reasons the Fed cut rates more than expected: 1) the level of interest on the Federal debt is at crisis [...]

The Yield Curve Has Un-inverted, Now What?

2024-09-17T18:37:39+00:00September 17th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Treasury yield curve typically refers to the difference between the yield on the 10-year and two-year Treasury Notes. In normal times long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate hiking cycle caused the yield curve to invert – meaning short-term [...]

Is the Other Shoe Dropping?

2024-09-16T18:23:55+00:00September 10th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Over the past year, the economy has weakened, but the “strength” in the labor force has kept us from recession. However, recent revisions in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “new jobs data” bring into question the reliability of the BLS data. Revisions showed that “new [...]

Is the Carry Trade Unwinding?

2024-08-06T19:10:54+00:00August 6th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary To take advantage of negative interest rates in Japan and a strengthening dollar, investors have been borrowing funds in yen and investing in the U.S. and abroad. This “carry trade” allowed investors to achieve a higher yield on their investments and possibly gain on the [...]

More From Dr. Hussman

2024-07-23T17:25:48+00:00July 23rd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Today’s missive compares the historical price movements in Cisco Systems to the price movements in Nvidia today. While there are some differences, the outcome is likely to be the same.   I encourage you to read The Details below for more information. “Whenever you [...]

Is Nvidia the Next Cisco?

2024-07-16T19:03:05+00:00July 16th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Today’s missive compares the historical price movements in Cisco Systems to the price movements in Nvidia today. While there are some differences, the outcome is likely to be the same.   I encourage you to read The Details below for more information. “Whenever you [...]

How Broad is the Stock Market?

2024-07-09T17:38:34+00:00July 9th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As shown in the first graph of the missive this week, only 17% of companies in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index over the last 30 days. The S&P 500 Index is market-cap weighted. However, in the second graph one can see the S&P [...]

How Absurd Has the Stock Market Become?

2024-07-02T19:12:53+00:00July 2nd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I will focus on one financial metric to demonstrate the absurdity of today’s stock market prices. One of the best valuation methodologies is the price-to-sales ratio (P/S). It can be said that this metric is better than price-to-earnings because of the [...]

Is Hussman Calling the Top?

2024-06-25T16:08:33+00:00June 25th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Every stock market cycle in history has had both a bull (upside) and bear (downside) to it. The challenge is always in calling the correct change in direction. This week’s commentary includes excerpts from Dr. John Hussman’s June 2024 market comment titled “You Can Ring [...]

Load More Posts