Executive Summary This week (Part 4) will focus on the risk of U.S. dollar debasement from external, foreign-exchange forces rather than domestic inflation. The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency—established at the WWII era Bretton Woods Agreement pegging the value to gold – which means the [...]

Executive Summary In this Part 3 missive on currency debasement, I will focus on the U.S. debt picture and what is necessary to initiate high inflation (see links below to Part 1 & 2). In 2007 the U.S. Federal debt was around $9 trillion, just before the [...]

Executive Summary Last week I introduced the concept of currency debasement, or the loss of purchasing power of the dollar. I stated that this occurs largely due to inflation. This week, Part 2, addresses the chief pretexts for an increase in the money supply, specifically M2, and [...]

Executive Summary Debasement of the U.S. dollar refers to the loss of its purchasing power, which appears in two basic forms: loss of purchasing power due to inflation or depreciation in the currency relative to other currencies. Inflation, the rise in the prices of goods and services, [...]

Executive Summary The U.S. housing market experienced a surge in home prices during 2021, driven by low mortgage rates and Federal stimulus. However, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022 slowed this growth, due to higher mortgage rates (second graph) and reduced affordability (third graph). Home prices [...]

Executive Summary Currently speculators continue pushing stock prices higher, justifying the move on technological advances. Similar times in history include the “New Era” of the 1920’s, the “New Economy” of the 1990’s and current AI advances. Economist John Hussman has a valuation methodology highly correlated with actual [...]

Executive Summary Prompted by the tragic Surfside condo collapse in Florida, new legislation—the Florida Condo Safety Act—now requires all condo associations with buildings three stories or higher to conduct a Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) and maintain dedicated reserve funds for structural repairs. Associations can no longer [...]

Executive Summary The Federal Reserve began cutting short-term interest rates again in September 2024 to address a weakening economy; however, the bond market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of these measures in controlling inflation. Despite several rate cuts and the introduction of Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) – [...]

Executive Summary In this missive I will share how investors must feel confused when hearing contradictory information about the economy. The wealthy may feel the economy is strong as long as the stock market bubble is growing, but others may feel as they did in previous recessions. [...]

Executive Summary Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index peaked in 1989 and took 34 years to recover after the dramatic decline (see first graph). In an unprecedented move to combat deflation and spur growth, the Bank of Japan pursued ultra-loose monetary policies – zero and negative interest rates, [...]