Executive Summary Recently the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their final number for second quarter 2025, real annualized GDP growth at 3.8%. Many were stunned at the number, especially when compared to 4th quarter 2024 and first quarter 2025 (see first graph). Recently, a large gap [...]
Executive Summary The one piece of the economic puzzle which had appeared to defy gravity was employment; however, the picture changed with last week’s revision. Between last week’s revision for the period April 2024-March 2025 and the prior revision for same period 2023-2024, 1.5 million previously reported [...]
Executive Summary The one piece of the economic puzzle which had appeared to defy gravity was employment; however, the picture changed with last week’s revision. Between last week’s revision for the period April 2024-March 2025 and the prior revision for same period 2023-2024, 1.5 million previously reported [...]
Executive Summary There have been discussions lately about the reliability of the monthly “new jobs” report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The magnitude of subsequent monthly revisions is the source of the discussions. Each month the BLS uses the Establishment Survey combined with “seasonal [...]
Executive Summary The U.S. Federal debt is now over $37 trillion. In the first graph below, one can see Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is now 12.9% below the long-term trend. Economist Lacy Hunt has stated studies indicate when Federal debt-to-GDP exceeds 90% for five consecutive years, [...]
Executive Summary Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the now infamous Jackson Hole meeting. In The Details below are excerpts from his talk. However, the markets only appeared to care about the following quote: “…the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant [...]
Executive Summary This week includes a number of data points for our readers to ponder. First the concentration risk in the S&P 500, evidenced by the first graph, which shows the largest capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 Index have never been priced this high relative to [...]
Executive Summary Once again stock prices are pushing record levels. In recent years, investors have seen how the Magnificent 7 have driven up markets. Now, in the first graph, one can see how technology stocks as a share if the market have reached Dot-Com levels. The Schiller [...]
Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I follow up on the GDP report released after last week’s issue and then cover the employment numbers from last week. The first graph shows the surge in imports in the first quarter (frontrunning tariffs) reversed in the second quarter. The [...]
Executive Summary On Wednesday, July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. After falling 0.5%, annualized, in the first quarter (see first graph), many are expecting a rebound in real growth to about 2-3% in Q2. One can [...]