Executive Summary In addition to gasoline reaching $4.50 per gallon, because of the war with Iran, the April Producer Price Index rose 1.4% and the Services Index rose 1.2% (the largest gain in 4 years). In the first graph below, the Headline Consumer Price Index shows a [...]

Executive Summary While the consensus had been for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, rising inflation could force new Fed leadership to raise rates, due to more persistent inflation concerns. That would increase borrowing costs at a time when U.S. debt has already risen to [...]

Executive Summary While the stock market continues reaching new highs, one would think consumers would also be doing well. However, according to the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (first graph), the reading is below the start of every recession back to 1975. The post-Covid [...]