Executive Summary Recently the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their final number for second quarter 2025, real annualized GDP growth at 3.8%. Many were stunned at the number, especially when compared to 4th quarter 2024 and first quarter 2025 (see first graph). Recently, a large gap [...]

Executive Summary The one piece of the economic puzzle which had appeared to defy gravity was employment; however, the picture changed with last week’s revision. Between last week’s revision for the period April 2024-March 2025 and the prior revision for same period 2023-2024, 1.5 million previously reported [...]

Executive Summary The one piece of the economic puzzle which had appeared to defy gravity was employment; however, the picture changed with last week’s revision. Between last week’s revision for the period April 2024-March 2025 and the prior revision for same period 2023-2024, 1.5 million previously reported [...]

Executive Summary There have been discussions lately about the reliability of the monthly “new jobs” report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The magnitude of subsequent monthly revisions is the source of the discussions. Each month the BLS uses the Establishment Survey combined with “seasonal [...]

Executive Summary The U.S. Federal debt is now over $37 trillion. In the first graph below, one can see Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is now 12.9% below the long-term trend. Economist Lacy Hunt has stated studies indicate when Federal debt-to-GDP exceeds 90% for five consecutive years, [...]