Executive Summary Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett’s mentor) and David Dodd authored the book Security Analysis, in which they define investment as: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” The second [...]

Executive Summary Historically, when the yield curve un-inverts, a recession is soon to follow. In the first graph below one can see interest rates are behaving similar to previous recessions. Note, no recession has currently been declared. Additionally, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business [...]

Executive Summary What does stock market overvaluation mean? Overvaluation refers to whether the price paid for a stock is higher than what would be considered reasonable based upon corporate revenue and earnings. One benchmark is the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which has a long-term median of 15. The [...]

Executive Summary Election day is finally upon us! Everyone wants to know who is going to win, and what will happen to the economy and the stock market. I am here to give you the answers…just kidding. As a follow up to last week’s commentary, the Congressional [...]