Will Home Prices Fall?

2024-10-22T17:22:42+00:00October 22nd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Housing prices have perplexed many since mortgage rates rose in 2023. Since active home listings plummeted from 1.2 million in 2019 to 347,000 in 2022 (see first graph), prices stayed high. Now analyzing housing affordability, one can see it is more unaffordable than in 2007 [...]

Who Are Fed Policies Designed to Help?

2024-10-15T19:05:20+00:00October 15th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary A recent article in the Financial Times suggests that the Fed pushing interest rates higher has led to a windfall profit for large banks of almost $1 trillion at the expense of depositors. In this missive I will review changes in Fed policies, including growing [...]

How Overvalued is the Stock Market?

2024-10-22T14:48:04+00:00October 8th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Speculators have driven the stock market to extreme highs, along with the imbedded risks. The four graphs (included below) represent various valuation methodologies. Twelve-month trailing p/e (currently 30, long-term median is 15) Shiller P/E (currently 37, long-term median 16) The Buffet Indicator Hussman’s ratio of [...]

Will History Rhyme?

2024-10-01T18:46:24+00:00October 1st, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this week’s Market Update, I share comments made by economists Dr. John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham as well as quotes from Benjamin Graham and David Dodd published after the 1929-1932 stock market crash. The first graph below from Dr. Hussman’s most recent Market Comment [...]