Executive Summary Last week the Federal Reserve surprised economists with a 0.50% decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, rather than the expected 0.25% decrease. There are two reasons the Fed cut rates more than expected: 1) the level of interest on the Federal debt is at crisis [...]

Executive Summary The Treasury yield curve typically refers to the difference between the yield on the 10-year and two-year Treasury Notes. In normal times long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate hiking cycle caused the yield curve to invert – meaning short-term [...]

Executive Summary Over the past year, the economy has weakened, but the “strength” in the labor force has kept us from recession. However, recent revisions in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “new jobs data” bring into question the reliability of the BLS data. Revisions showed that “new [...]